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place to be once they settle this thing. the third and the most important thing is the u.s. economy is the most vibrant, adaptable, innovative and creative economy on the planet. i think that means we're coming out and starting to see that in many sectors today. we're bullish and think you need to look at this on a positive frame. >> maria, i'm less bullish than that. that sounds very optimistic. i would love to believe that, but if you compare valuations of equities versus bonds, yes, there's a huge spread right now, but that doesn't necessarily make equities really cheap. it's just a relative trade. i think, also, yes, we're a vibrant economy. we certainly are a strong economy. i think it's really unsustainable, the level of debt that we have in this country. we have $1 trillion in debt. i heard an incredibly succinct way of describing this. rick santelli actually said it this morning about how you can't say you're cutting $800 billion when really $80 billion is really from wars that are just going away. that's not really a cut. that's taking away the addition. i think you need to
can count on. ♪ could push the u.s. economy behind the times. plus, a preview of what stocks investors are looking to own after ringing in the new year. the sudden flow of one hundred dollar bills is indicating a rise in fishy activity. and, bring on the breakout. are the markets poised for a swing to the upside? first business starts now. you're watching first business: financial news, analysis, and today's investment ideas. good morning. it's wednesday, december 5th. i'm angela miles. in today's first look: standstill. that's what's happening with the budget talks in washington, and it's reflected on wall street. stocks barely budged yesterday. gold, however, was a major mover. what that tells traders is coming up in the show. pandora hit a sour note with investors last night. shares plunged after the company revealed a loss of advertising money as lawmakers fail to find harmony over averting the fiscal cliff. the brand new dreamliner is under review after making an emergency landing in new orleans due to a mechanical glitch. larry shover of sfg alternatives joins us now on this wedn
before the end of the year. dave: think of the billions of dollars that will be in the economy just when people will be buying those blue boxes. this could be a nice stimulus for the economy. john boehner saying he has seen no substantive progress on the fiscal cliff talks in the last couple weeks. what compromises need to be made? sheila bair, being a former fdic chair, telling us 4 ways wall street can help out and it is not all good news for investors. liz: did you see the cover of the wall street journal? fed stimulus like gillian 2013. we talked about this the second broke yesterday halfway through the 3:00 p.m. show. the man who wrote the article, wall street journal's chief economic correspondent and chief head head to lend us live. dave: before that is of we will tell you what drove the market with the data download. stocks extending yesterday's gains finishing a volatile session higher with the dow, s&p and nasdaq trading above the 200 day moving average for the first time in three weeks. telecom and health care were the top performing sectors. fewer americans filing first-time
because the underlying fundamentals in the u.s. economy are clearly improving, and you also have a stabilization or soft landing happening in china at the same time. >> david kelly, what do you want to be doing here? what's your strategy for the fiscal cliff? do you think we go over it, and what do you want to do? >> for a long-term investor, you don't try and play this one. i agree with stephanie about the market probably going higher once they get a resolution. they will get a resolution. it's possible it could go into early january. i still think they're more likely to get a resolution done before the end of the year. either way, they'll get a resolution done. when that happens, then we'll resort to looking at the u.s. economy, which is strengthening a bit here. also, the extreme and relative valuations between high-quality fixed income and equities will push money towards equities. i would not run for cover here because of the volatility. i think you just have to, you know, hold your ground through this and hope that the market moves higher next year. >> bob, this activity at
hurting our economy and creating jobs. today, the white house has demanded an offer from republicans. they now have one. back to you. llri: rich edson, and he thinks. the market is taking a breather today. dupont and 3m are the biggest draggers on the dow. early stocks rising out of the gate out of some good news out of china over the night. hitting a seven month high, but then the u.s. isf number hit at 10:00 a.m. eastern and a wave of selling. manufacturing activity contracted in november. they say the factory index came in at 49.5 in november. down from almost 52 and october. keep in mind, any number below 50 means contraction. above 50 equals expansion. investors are still worried about tax treatment and dead deals. exelon, the worst of the bunch our first guest has seen it all. the u.s. economy they fall into a recession next year even if congress strikes a budget deal by year end. joining us from stanford, california, martin feldstein. thank you for being with us. the republicans now responding. negotiations well underway to avoid a fiscal cliff. to your point, you recently sai
with the german economy and this is a big divergence. so that's a change. but looking over time, all stocks have the component of what they call the economic return. speculative return which is it for change and the valuation that the market puts on it. over time, one is a possum gain and the other is zero sum gain. sometimes good news, sometimes bad news. but over time the kind of net being nothing. >> we'll see what happens. good to have you on. we'll be out in westminster, joined by the british shadow business secretarier to. we'll talk currencies. find out why one strategist is bullish on the currency. after the ramp up in m&a that we've seen this year, we'll also speak to an expert in los angeles that says the fundamentalses for deal activity in 2013 are looking more solid. so where will the money flow in the new year, that's at 11:20. and the outlook for u.s. credit market appears less rose city. we'll speak to a moody's analyst that says high duration credit could be badly exposed. the european central bank is announcing either monetary policy decisions later today. economists expect ecb
the economy avoid the cliff and rides above? anyway, senior u.s. economist and managing director at ubs. do you think we'll get a deal? >> i think we'll get a deal. do we get it before the holidays or after for markets, it matters. it's been a drag for the last nine months. so the idea that there is more uncertainty now than there was six months ago, how does that work? there was no fiscal cliff deal six months from now and still no deal. so i'm not sure why we think there's more uncertainty. i would say if you really think about it the president has a lot of ways to delay the impact. for example, our withholding table don't have to get change order january 1. even if you haven't struck a deal, you don't adjust the withholding tables. for now you can delay the pain. so there is wiggle room in terms of when the impact has to be felt. >> but is there where wiggle rom the investing world who looks at the united states and says these guys are a bunch of keystone cops. this cost us with the last round of negotiations back in the summer of 2011 when the debt rating agencies said if you can't find
that marie solving insolvent firms easier. crucial agreement for restructuring the economy in this transition period as resources must shift from unproductive to productive activities. it is the latter that create jobs. this reallocation process, though sometimes painful in the short run, i'll say always painful in the short run, carries the seed of future prosperity. a growing body of knowledge shows that by increasing the ability of the economy to adjust so that factors can be reallocated to the most competitive firms, aggregate labor productivity can increase substantially. some studies indicate a gain of as much as 20 force 30%. the current focus on competitiveness in france leading towards an institutional and fiscal set up that can support firms investment in innovation is therefore a welcome step in the right direction. another important aspect is the growth and competitiveness enhancing potential of further market integration in europe. one example is a very recent study which finds that applying the eu patent would raise the gains for european firms from patent and inventions by 60%.
, tonight's market monitor guest says stock prices and the economy will grow in 2013. hank smith of haverford trust joins us. >> tom: super storm sandy keeps showing up in some economic data. this time: consumer spending. spending fell 0.2% in october. it was expected to be up that much. stocks were mixed with continued nervousness about the fiscal cliff. the dow gained just three points, the nasdaq lost nearly two. the s&p 500 was virtually unchanged. on the week, the dow up just barely. the nasdaq the biggest gainer: up almost 1.5%, the s&p up half a percentage point. >> susie: investors took a bite out of yum brands today. the stock tumbled 10% after the parent of k.f.c. and pizza hut said its business in china is slowing. yum's c.e.o. warned that china sales will fall by 4% in the fourth quarter, that's a big drop from the same period a year ago when sales surged 21%. blaming the weak chinese economy, yum also said it plans to reduce the number of restaurant openings in the asian nation. yum operates roughly 5,000 restaurants in china, accounting for half of its total sales.
think the ramifications for the economy are too significant. i think we're watching whatever you want to call it, all of the politics playing out, but i still think in the end we'll get a last minute deal. >> i agree. and i think even though the sides are far apart, you have things on the table now. so you can say you're here at 800, 1.6, you kind of -- it gets you somewhere close. somebody will try to say 1.3 versus 1.1, but if you see publicly what they're stating and hopefully privately other things are going on, but it will get done, but it will be very slow. >> john boehner with the proposal he put on the table, i did see commentary from some of the far right saying this is not an acceptable proposal. even his proposal is not acceptable. i did see comment it ter that came through. my question is does the president now have to alienate some of his far left base in order to reach a compromise. >> i think you'll see both of them have to actually bring the parties together. because you won't get everybody happy. some of the people who got voted on the ticket side, no, never. but it w
to get better. the economy is strong. it's going to get stronger. >> what evidence do you have these guys are not just going to go over the fiscal cliff? we heard tim geithner on this program yesterday when steve asked him, look f you don't get what you want, do we go over the fiscal cliff? he said absolutely. >> he said he would do it! >> what happens when we wake up january nd, we go over the cliff, and the world doesn't end? >> that is so irresponsible. >> you have to be a long-term investor. long-term stocks have outperformed bonds. >> with all do respect, george, are you one of those come play september investors larry is referring to? >> i'd say we're opposite of that. we never take anything for granted, but we bet accordingac. bonds are trouble. a lot of people are going to lose a lot of money in bonds. you have to be prepared for that. interest rates are going to go up. dividends are going to continue to increase. the economy in this country is strong. it's going to get stronger. >> even at 44% dividend tax? >> it's not going to go that high. >> if we go over the fiscal cliff, it
that there may be some more demand coming for the metal from china and the u.s. as well. as both of our economies begin to churn a little more than expected. the top two copper-consuming countries. >> and following auto sales today, a number of derivatives plays hitting 52-week highs. cooper tire and rubber, genuine parts and carmax taking a hit in today's session. david: all right. and we told you about that breaking news on jpmorgan whale trader, a $5 billion loss for the company. the senate has been investigating. peter barnes with the latest on that investigation. peter? >> reporter: well, that's right, david. the senate, a senate investigation subcommittee has questioned more than 80 people in its probe of $5.8 billion in trading losses in may by jpmorgan chase, the london whale trading losses, according to two people familiar with the investigation. now, according to the sources the people -- according to one of the sources, the people include current and former jpmorgan employees as you would expect. now, reports of this probe first -@surfaced in the fall. now we can report that investigat
it to some of the other developed economies, you can see how well australia is holding up. we've seen growth of just 2.5% in the u.s., 1.5% in canada and zero growth in the uk. locally, cutbacks in government spending weighed on the numbers and lower commodity prices also impacted on cash flow and the government is facing more criticism about its effort to keep the budget in surplus while the economy grows. >> the government has had the objective of making sure that we would bring our budget back to surplus when growth has been around trend. what we've been seeking to do through good budget policy has been to provide maximum flexibility to the reserve bank to a just rate so. the government will always put in place appropriate budget settings which will support growth and jobs. >> still, analysts say growth could slow further as the mining investment boom peaks. yesterday, the bank of australia cut interest rates to a record low of 3% and traders are looking further easing next year to offset the falling talks of trade, the high australian daughter and further cutbacks in government spending.
put it in perspective say it going to be a tough economy for the next decade is there anything this there fiscal cliff negotiations that there would be a package for jobs or helping the economy over the next couple of years in the near term? >> well, one would hope so my own belief is there should be significant investment in roads, bridges, airports, schools, other infrastructure for this country because we not only have a fiscal deficit we also have an infrastructure deficit. that would give two advantages. one, it would employ people in this country at a time when unemployment is too high. and numb two it uld improve the competive position of the country so, that's a to-for. >> susie: senator conrad, thank you for coming to the program. we appreciate it. >> thank you, always good to be with you. >> reporter: i'm erika miller in new york. still ahead, we'll look at why silver has been one of the best performing asset classes this year. >> tom: the u.s. economy was hotter than first thought this summer. in the newest data on the gross domestic product, the economy grew in the
to make the economy move forward. i don't think any politician wants to have on their watch to see this economy going into another recession and to avert that from happening both sides have to come together and reach a deal. markets trying to price and -- is ot impossible to sell off if we continue to see this uncertainty, if we had those key technical levels it is a buying opportunity for big investors and the public as well. dave: i was talking to a trader in london earlier today, he was saying europe has tried, france and england and spain raised taxes and this is not created any economic growth. some people looking at china, despite the talk about how china's economy is slowing down, there may be interesting places to put your money over there. do you agree? >> i completely agree but don't think that is directly in china but there are some great u.s. companies that make revenues to the rest of the world and -- proctor and gamble, all of our tobacco companies, we have brands like starbucks, the rest of the world aspires to end huge middle-class being created all over the world
strategy? what do you want to do with your money in the economy does go off the fiscal cliff? >> yeah, we were worried about that back in september, october. so even though we like the equity markets going into 2013, we wanted to hedge ourselves a little bit, so we took money out of equities. didn't just put it into cash. we put it into three areas we think are still good long term. one is we talk about emerging market equities, but i like emerging market debt. these monetary authorities are done tightening. they fought the inflationary problem that they had successfully. they're in hoed. yield curves could shift down. we stress doing it in local currency. the other areas are u.s. high yield, which i still think is valuable. we do think spreads will contract and emerging market equities as well. >> jordan, what about you? how are you preparing for what could be an eventuality where we go over the cliff and we've got to deal with higher taxes and a slower economy? a lot of people expecting recession in 2013, if, in fact, this occurs. >> think about what works well in a slow-growth economy.
to be remembered that push the country back into recession. >> it is not leaving a strong economy, it is transforming the economy into a your -- european socialist. connell: thank you, monica. >> thank you. connell: we do have real numbers on the economy to talk about. today, we learned consumer spending is down for the month of october. not to worry says stuart hoffman. he joins us from pittsburgh. >> it is a deal when consumer spending falls. we should put it in context. in july, august and september contributors had a pretty good rebound. as you said, some of the hurricane sandy koufax did affect this number we will find out on monday whether the sales came back when they announced november numbers. if you average this out, we saw, even in our company, a decline in sales of our merchant services. we have seen more of a return to normal and i was encouraged, but i guess it is now black thursday to cyber monday sales look pretty good. connell: everyone says, all right, well, what if we do not get there in terms of this washington self that monica was just talking about and we do
, people. i hope you're not either. coming up tomorrow, what was once a dark spot in the economy is becoming the shining star in the recovery. why the quick turn around? that's all for on the. thanks for joining us. have a great night. see you right back here tomorrow. ♪ lew: good evening, everybody. u.s. foreign policy in the middle east in question at this hour. violence spiring out of control in syria after 20 months of civil unrest and the deaths of at least 40,000 murdered civilians at the hands of their own government. united states and nato agreeing to deploy patriot weapons and to thwart an aso-called by assad. the missile systems to be positioned near the syria. his staff denies that and estimates if they were deploy troops, it requires 75,000 of the troops in a full ground invasion in order to seize the chemical weapon stockpile. fox news confirming they were not ordered to draft the consideration of such a mission. secretary of state clinton is nonetheless talking very tough calling for assad to step down as the obama administration has done for the past 15 months, b
on the economy. tom just talked about that weak data showing businesses contracting. and we're also getting warnings on weak corporate profits. so doesn't this give you pause about buying in this market right now? >> i think, i just got back from two weeks in europe speaking to portfolio managers in seven different countries. they are profoundly underinvestmented in the u.s. the endowment funds in this country are profoundly underinvested in u.s. equities. a lot of portfolio managers are hoping equities go down as measured by the s&p so their underperformance doesn't look as bad. if the market doesn't go down here i think they will be forced to chase not end of the year. >> susie: uh-huh. beyond stocks, give us your thoughts on bonds, on gold, and other commodities. >> i think gold is in a secular bull market. i think it's just been consolidating the big run it has had and will eventually go higher. bons i think with the re-election of president obama it pretty much insurances you will have low-interest rates for the next 18 to 24 months at least on the shored end of the yield curve. but i
is expecting, what would that meanor jobs in delaware, and also for your state's economy? >> well, across the country, i think this whole issue around taxes and around the fiscal cliff generally leads to something else, which is significant uncertainty. and whether it is delaware or whether it is any other state, one of the things that is most important to us is having business leaders have some kind of certainty about what the ground rules are going to be. not just for the next three months, by the way. but really for the next several years. they're more likely to invest, more likely to hire their next employee if they know what the game looks like. what the landscape looks like. and so as much as anything else, we think having that certainty, having that clarity on taxes and spending, is really important. >> susie: you said you are also very concerned about where growth is going to come from. did you discuss that with the president, won did he say, aside from tax increases and spending cuts? >> one of the things we specifically talked about was infrastructure. it didn't used to be that
savings as part of that and invest in things that matter to the american economy. we think we can do that. we have a good chance to do it now. it's important that we do it. i think we're going to get there. >> given tough talk over the weekend, why aren't we waking up to down numbers, red arrows? >> europe is terrific. bond rates are phenomenal. a great run. china numbers are better. i think that there's a lot of people who feel like doug cast does who writes with me with a piece in "the new york times" saying that -- >> most stuff is nontaxable accounts any way. most stocks that people won't be as motivated to sell as people think. of course that doesn't necessarily deal with the increase in payroll taxes and the whole recession side of it. it does deal with the stock market side in terms of selling. >> why not say, listen, fiscal cliff, i have to cut numbers. i have to cut guidance. i think many ceos will cut guidance because of the possibility that the amt is going to -- this alternative minimum tax, people don't know they have to write a check for $3,500 at the end of the year. once y
two acquisitions. plains exploration and mcmoran exploration. >>> concerns over the u.s. economy as adp misses estimates. the blame goes to superstorm sandy. goldman says the party is officially over for gold. >> starbucks at an investors conference will add 1,500 stores in the u.s. over the next five years. wait until you hear what they said about china. >> a big day in media. pandora ceo joins us live later this morning as the stock fell nearly 20% on weak guidance and netflix signs a big exclusive with disney. how much are they having to pay up for that? >>> let's deal with this big deal. as i've been telling you we'll see a lot of big deals -- i was wrong. here we are. freeport mcmoran buying not one but two companies. the combined price if you add it all together gets close to $20 billion. that does include debt. let's go through some of the details. it's somewhat complex. let's start with bigger of the two deals. freeport's purchase of plains. approximately $6.9 billion in total now. it's a cash and stock deal. .6531 shares and 39 bucks a share in cash. that adds up to $50
on the very, very decent and accelerating fundamentals of the u.s. economy. >> maybe, and that's just today, right, ron? >> been since last week. >> we were talking about the market really being so sensitive to any rhetoric out of washington. >> i'm not saying it's not hostage to headlines. we'll get intraday volatility. from the monday before thank giving until now, we have effectively wiped out the losses we saw post-election. >> rick, how do you see it? market complacency, too much angst, are we overthinking this? how do you read the market right now? >> i think that the low volume movements of the equity markets aren't really telling you any information. there's no way even in aggregate a market could decide what's going on in harry reid or john boehner's brain in anything is going on in begin with. if you look at treasuries overlaid on top of equities, until mr. boehner's comments, the treasuries have taken the big picture on all of this. they're not going anywhere fast. fiscal cliff is important, but there's a lot of issues for the next several years that are going to be important to
. so if you look at the other trends for the economy, it's still the same of steady slow appreciation and that there really i don't believe is any effect from the supposed anxiety about the fiscal cliff. i think people know there will be some type of resolution. we didn't know the details or when. but companies are still investing the way they would normally do and they're not stopping because of -- >> that doesn't make us quake a bit about the jobs report later this will week and what that does for investors' nerves? >> we know it will be worse than it would have been because of super storm sandy. so you didn't know how much it was to do with that and how much was the economy. so it will be a bit of a wash in terms of reading the tea leaves for the u.s. >> so the growth picture for the u.s., we sort of 1%, 2%, depending on what happens with the fiscal cliff. what do you think, 2.5%? >> yeah, i think we should be 2.5% to 3% by the end of next year. >> which might be a slightly better outturn. china seems to be back on track. is there anything in europe -- what's the tail risk at the m
back then, barack obama believed that lowering rates was good for the economy. dagen and connell, it is yours. connell: the war on wealth is where we begin today. dagen: get the government out of the markets. connell: the devil wears -- becoming our next ambassador to britain. dagen: holiday travelers paying up. the average ticket price topping $450. connell: everyone needs a few days off. it is the top of the hour. we will go to nicole petallides. good morning. nicole: good morning. let's take a look at what is going on here. let's take a look at jardin restaurants. it turns out they are not meeting the analyst expectations. let's take a look at the stock. it is near its lows of he day. their earnings will miss the analyst estimates. same-store sales dropping 3.2%. as a result, sales have diminished. how about the major market averages? the dow is higher, but the s&p and the nasdaq are lower. dagen: republicans finally pulling off their own plan to deal with the fiscal cliff. connell: the white house predictably saying, no deal. the parameters are there now. we can start to ima
the company's economy. the damage from sandy was worse than first anticipated. there's 75,000 jobs lost in new jersey and new york. and the $1.4 billion economy is -- in the quarters ahead, in the fourth quart, he sees a quarter to a half point hit to national gdp directly related to the effects of sandy. talking about the national economy, the bright spots include housing and consumer spending, the negatives include business investment along with weak manufacturing. the congress and the administration must address the fiscal cliff. any plan to reduce the deficit should quote start small and then grow very substantially over time. so dudley basically agreeing with the take that sandy is a bigger event, and then you want to add on top of that dudley's concerns about the fiscal cliff coming our way. >> what does this mean for the retailers because right now we have the impact of sandy, because they're confined pretty much to november. we had this seasonally strong period for retail sales especially for the holiday season. but does that mean the kruk -- money is being spent instead on gypsum boar
on this debate. this is too important to our economy. it is too important for our families to not get it done. it's not acceptable to me and i don't think it is acceptable to you for just a handful of republicans in congress to hold middle class tax cuts hostage simply because they don't want tax rates on upper income folks to go up. >> then one of those congressmen who's presumably on the president's naughty list today, speaker john boehner, who came out just a few minutes after the president spoke. he talked here on capitol hill a little bit about the stalemate that he sees these talks being at this point. sort of a glum take here from the speaker of the house. obviously he's saying that these negotiations not broken down. they continue to talk but a stalemate is the way he characterizeded that. so tyler, not great news here on capitol hill, but there's another week next week. we'll get another crack at this thing. >> eamon, thanks very much. where do we stand? are we any closer to a deal? we thought we'd give you our little guide with the daily spin on our "rise above" deal meter. as you can s
republicans are holding the global economy hostage over the fiscal cliff. >> susie: and apple shares get of the most widely owned stocks sees heavy trading. >> tom: that and more tonight on "n.b.r." >> susie: big job cuts today at one of the nation's biggest banks. citigroup announced it's slashing 4% of its staff; that works out to 11,000 jobs worldwide. the cuts will save the bank more than $1 billion a year in expenses. but they won't be cheap, resulting in a billion-dollar charge against fourth-quarter earnings. is this gloomy news from citi the beginning of other companies doing the same? suzanne pratt reports. >> reporter: 11,000 jobs are a lot of layoffs, even for a bank as huge as citi. and there could be more. that's because the monster firm is still struggling to recover from the great recession even though it has fired a lot of other workers in the last few years. the thing is, citi has a new c.e.o. in michael corbat, and experts say he's anxious to make his mark, even if that includes cutting staff. and the need to slim down is not ique to citi; it's indtry- wide. a financial
to inject money in a credit fashion into their economy. and we certainly think we can bring our fixed income expertise and continue to help them. >> that would make sense for cantor. ireland was the mf-will first they were in trouble, then the model for the world. what got them into trouble again, housing or real estate or something or bad banks or -- and now again they're kind of a model for everyone on how to handle it. is that basically the last five years? >> absolutely. certainly was a real estate bubble there. now there are austerity measures being put in place and they're actually following through on the austerity measures. so certainly they'll come out first and actually look pretty good. >> so where is the most business for you for cantor in ireland, what will you be doing? >> certainly it's an equity based firm. we'll bring our fixed income expertise, probably become the primary dealer there. the irish government will continue to have to have bond issuances as well as corporate debt will start to become a much bigger part of their economy. >> who else looked at this firm, do you k
back this morning, a new report finds that exporting nat gas will actually help the u.s. economy, but not every day is a winner. >>> vice chairman alan blinder will tell us what he thinks. >>> a new study from the federal government shows exporting u.s. natural gas overseas has the potential to reshape the global energy markets. the obama administration has said the study will be central to the decision on whether to export. he said exporting the gas would be a bigger impact on the economy. >> slap in the face of dow chemical. of coke, not coke the beverage company. but this was something that was hotly disputed within the romney campaign. he really let this stuff go because the romney campaign had some very big givers that were chemical companies. >> do we know, say, very bad, how much will prices conceivableably go up if we become an exporter of natural gas? is it that great a difference? >> we burn offer more natural gas than we use. burn off, in other words literally, you see those flames, we flare more than we use. so we got a real excess of this stuff. >> the government say
cliff? are you expecting the economy to go over the fiscal cliff and see these taxes go high hadder and spending cuts take effect? >> my personal view is i'm still optimistic. i think the conversation has been constructive since. do we have a solution on the table yet? no. but i'm optimistic we'll get to a framework. >> why? >> there's been enough dialogue. there's been movement. everyone seems to recognize the problem. everybody realizes there has to be a revenue component, spend component, entitlement reform component. for us, the business community and all the ceos, certainty is the greatest stimulus for us. >> do you support tax rates going higher? >> me personally, as an individual, more importantly the business community, which i'm part of. we support something inclusive. if rates were higher in a videocasset vacuum, i'm not sure we'd be supportive of that. we have to make sure the consumers, those who spends a lot of the dollars, the middle class, are protected in this exercise. >> i guess the question i'm really getting at is, do you get the revenue from tax increases or fro
just return to a normal economy like we had in 2007, those policies of george bush where we had 18.5% of our economy coming to the federal government as revenue, that would be another $419 billion. so combined, that would be $750 billion per year of additional revenue. now, president obama's proposal of punishing success, it's hard to say exactly what it will be, but somewhere around $75 billion. it's a tenth of what we get with economic growth. and the rob with punishing success, with increasing marginal tax rates or really increasing taxes, is you put at risk that growth that is ten times more effective. so again, i'm just looking at what works. and we need to calm the markets. i don't want to play brinksmanship. it's a unfortunate that the president really isn't negotiating in good faith. he's just moving the goal posts. >> although the lead story on the "wall street journal" is about how the president may be relaxing that position. he may not insist on returning to the pre-bush tax cut rates for those wealthiest 2% or whatever the situation is. that may not mean that he's not l
to the economy. >> i'm wondering whether germany as we look at -- they're just above sort of recession territory at the moment. i'm wondering whether if they get better growth out of asia, that will offset the weakness that they're seeing in europe enough to keep them above the pencil line. >> what we've seen so far with today's numbers is exports are declining very sharp. they'll need asia and the u.s. to offset some of that demand weakness, but again, the biggest market for most is the euro zone. if the eurozone is performing badly, that will have a thok-on effect for those countries. >> there's a number of strategists saying after the u.s. has sort of led equities for most of the year, they're now saying europe is the place to be. from i think really the question you have to ask yourself is when cash, equities, credit, government bonds, where do you want to be. and equity in my mind mind is absolutely not. you need good growth numbers to justify the equity markets going up. now, i think there's a lot of investors looking at the yields on ghoechlt bonds or credits and that's motivating them to
of popping off of the fha. if you look at where we stand right now, as an economy, we have a very modest recovery. it is most likely going to happen. connell: the significance of it is, in your mind, what? >> what needs to happen is we need to take note that we are subsidizing the fha again. while the fha is great for lower income borrowers, we are still allowing people to buy properties where they want after they post on the property, they are upside down on our property. that is where we need to be cautious. connell: we talk about it all the time, the housing numbers that are showing improvement. if people are only putting down, you know, the 3.5%, are we getting ourselves into a similar hole to the ones we are trying to dig ourseeves out of? >> unfortunately, we may have. the loans that the fha have increased in the past ten years, has increased tenfold. when you look at that type of fan increase in the increased exposure for the fha, there are years were barely fha loans were written. today it is a very big percentage of the market. we need to prophet fha up short term and then refor
, not on any new or widespread weakness in the economy. >> i would expect that by december, we're going to see some bounce back. much of the disruption from sandy was people simply not being able to get to work or firms not employing people that they ordinarily would have. >> reporter: friday, the government will report it's monthly snapshot of the u.s. labor market. it, too, is likely to reflect temporary effects related to the aftermath of hurricane sandy. >> we're looking for only a 50,000 gain in jobs in november, well under that 170,000 average we've seen over the past three months. >> reporter: hurricane sandy's effects on hiring may be short- lived, but experts worry fiscal cliff concerns could result in a new storm brewing for workers looking to land a job in the coming weeks. suzanne pratt, "n.b.r.," new york. >> tom: citi and the financials lead the way higher on wall street, helping the dow top 13,000 again. but a big drop in apple shares kept the nasdaq from gains. by the closing bell, the dow was up 82 points, the nasdaq down 23, the s&p added two points. >> susie: investors were
? >> to be a generational buying opportunity. this is based on congressional ineptitude. the fact is the economy has a tail wind, the market is fundamentally attracted, the valuations are reasonable. you have earnings growth. if we can bridge the fiscal cliff and get a comprehensive tax reform and entitlement reform, you would see a market significantly higher. tracy: we have had some earnings that look positively dismal. it is a very big pricey discretionary product, but they miss earnings, that is a real fundamental, isn't it? speak we still have the s&p profit growth that is positive. you cannot continue to have double-digit earnings growth as he diyou did for 10 consecutive quarters. if we get through this cliff in the back half of 13, gdp growth rate accelerates as we anticipate and profit growth as well. tracy: if your liking big multinationals, you don't like europe yet you like the multinationals. help me wrap my mind around that. >> u.s. large caps are cheap, most of those in mall to nationals. but they don't deserve to be cheap. it is going to be a while before you get any sustained growth. you c
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